The Bailout: An Entrepreneur's Perspective
Tags: 
Date: 4 March, 2009 - 08:56

I use this space about once or twice a year to talk about political issues.  Honestly, I try to avoid it as much as possible but it's impossible to separate economic policy and entrepreneurship.  If you read anything from Paul Graham, you'll notice how he intricately threads these issues together time and time again.

If you've ever read my Twitter stream, it's not hard to guess what I think of the Bailout/Stimulus Bill signed into law recently.  In short:

I think the "Stimulus" is irresponsible, illogical, and a threat to the economic liberty and risks that entrepreneurs require.

While I'd love to write a whole treatise on this, I'll keep it to three points:

First, the "Stimulus" is supporting failed businesses and failed business models.  Don't get me wrong, in technology circles, we've seen literally hundreds of both that have gotten round after round of funding.  But at some point they're allowed to fail.  For example, even before we were into the current depth of the recession, GM's burn rate was well over 4.2B (billion!) per quarter. While the reason could include anything from union contracts to the "credit crunch" to a failure to deliver a desired product to high gas prices, this is not a success by any measure.  Of course, the scary part is that all of those things were known risks in advance... and yet they have been unable to successfully respond to market conditions.

While I'm picking on GM, this could be applied to numerous companies in a variety of industries... when the government funds something, it effectively incentivizes it.  This causes problems where politically-connectedness could end up being a new form of currency, but it also sends the wrong signals to those involved.

Second - and more importantly - the "Stimulus" unnecessarily ties up resources.  When the management of a company fails, their resources - people, capital, office space, equipment, etc - are generally released back to the market.  Other companies buy the useful equipment, rent/buy the space, use the capital, and hire the people.  Sometimes this happens immediately and sometimes it takes some time.  While it can be painful, it provides a way to get those things into the hands of people who can use them effectively.  As it stands now, we're mocking the executives who have lost billions... as we cut them another check for billions with a message of  "be good this time!" 

We'll never have any idea how many great ideas were lost as a result.  A few years ago, some friends were with a startup that was slowly failing and couldn't even reliably make payroll.  Unfortunately, by the time the situation reached this point, the friends had to get jobs.  Their reserves were gone, their patience were gone, and their stress was high.  In the years since that startup has failed, not one of them has joined another, they don't have the risk tolerance anymore.

Finally, a government entity inserting itself into the capital/ownership structure of a company is dangerous.  As we've seen with the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP), it is possible for the government to give money under their terms and add rules as the political climate changes without input or conset from the company.

Honestly, would you sign a lease on the smallest, cheapest apartment if the landlord could change their side of the lease at any time without your consent?

What does that do to your other investors and shareholders?  How can you - or anyone else - properly evalute the risk and value of your organization?  How can you - as a legal officer of the company - perform your duty to protect the assets and resources under your control?

 

Without getting into any of the underlying political principles or even specific funding priorities, this plan looks like trouble.  Just as we saw the Sarbanes-Oxley Act - designed to prevent accounting scandals like Enron - change the prefered exit strategy from IPO to "being bought out by Google", we haven't seen or even guessed what the implications and fallout of this are going to be... but we're going to be dealing with it for years to come.


Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

You're confusing the bailout (TARP) and the stimulus.

You're confusing the bailout and the stimulus, which are two separate things.

The bailout is TARP and related programs (like the auto bailout), which are intended to support failing businesses that are deemed critical to the continued functioning of the economy. (Watch this to understand why.)

The stimulus (aka the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act) isn't about propping up failing businesses, it's about generating demand for goods and services to make up for consumers and businesses shutting their wallets as the economy turned downward. Stimulus money will go to things like building roads, schools, and bridges, creating domestic sources of green energy, weatherizing homes and Federal office buildings, supporting state and local governments hit by cratering tax revenues so they don't lay off teachers, firefighters and cops, and so forth.

I could argue your philosophical objections, but that'd be a subject for a different post. My point here is just to illustrate that they all relate to the bailout and don't really apply to the stimulus, which actually has the potential to catalyze the creation of new industries in sectors like renewable energy and high-speed rail transport.

Side note:

Honestly, would you sign a lease on the smallest, cheapest apartment if the landlord could change their side of the lease at any time without your consent?

Credit card companies can change the terms of your agreement with them at any time without your consent. They do it all the time.

Correction

First of all, thanks for the correction... technically/legally, they are two different bills, but I have grouped them together here because their purposes, principles, and effect are quite similar. But yes, they are two separate bills.

Second, the credit card company is normally allowed to change your interest rate without notice or consent, but that's about it.  They're not allowed to add any provision they want such as the Feds have done in the case of TARP.  Long after the money was given - some bank presidents have said under duress - the terms of the loan changed.  The problem is that it wasn't a loan... it was a stock purchase.  The Feds didn't go through the channels available to shareholders to change the rules, they simply dictated them.

Next, the government's "generating demand for goods and services to make up for consumers and businesses shutting their wallets" is the definition of "propping up failing businesses".  I'm not sure of any other way to interpret it...

Finally, if you look at the government's current investments in various renewable energies and high-speed rail transport, you'll see what they really are... handouts.  There are very few places in the country where high-speed rails has or is working to the point where even the simplest projects are far beyond budget, far behind schedule, and far below expected ridership.  Various renewable energies - even after massive government subsidies - are nowhere near competitive with traditional means of energy production.

 

If you want to see innovation and advancement in these areas, stop strangling the innovators.

Long after the money was

Long after the money was given - some bank presidents have said under duress - the terms of the loan changed.

Under duress? There are banks that refused TARP funds, nobody's sending their directors to Gitmo or anything.

The reason why the Treasury was so hot on every bank getting TARP money was, paradoxically, to protect the banks. When they moved to bail out only the banks that were in immediate crisis (first Bear Stearns, then AIG), the announcement of the bailout served notice to the market that those banks were in crisis, and their stocks hit the floor, killing them. By making TARP a systemic program, this signaling problem was removed.

And what terms changed, exactly? The TARP funds were handed out with remarkably few strings. The whole point of TARP was to inject capital into the banks so that they'd start lending again, but most of them took the money and didn't restart lending. They used it to gobble up competitors instead. And yet none of the CEOs who did that are being prosecuted for taking public money and using it for purposes other than they accepted it for.

Sure, there have been calls to add additional restrictions to future TARP outlays, but that's inevitable given that they didn't use the money to lend, which is the whole reason we (you and I and every other taxpayer) gave it to them.

The government's "generating demand for goods and services to make up for consumers and businesses shutting their wallets" is the definition of "propping up failing businesses". I'm not sure of any other way to interpret it...

There's a distinction between businesses that are failing because of factors that are within their control and businesses that are failing because of factors outside their control.
Even well-run businesses are at risk right now of being swamped by the economic crisis, so they're doing the rational thing: cutting expenses, pulling back and trying to save to get through the crisis.

And because of that we're at risk of falling into a "deflationary spiral". In times like these, it's entirely rational and prudent for businesses to tighten their belts. But when every business does that at the same time, it creates a systemic crisis: businesses pull back production to save money, which leads to layoffs, which leads to consumers spending less, which leads to businesses cutting production, which leads to layoffs, and on and on until you're looking at another Great Depression.

That's what the stimulus is intended to correct, by having the government serve as the "buyer of last resort" when businesses and consumers are (quite rationally!) holding back. The only alternative is to try and convince businesses and consumers to act voluntarily outside their self-interest, which, you know, good luck with that.

Finally, if you look at the government's current investments in various renewable energies and high-speed rail transport, you'll see what they really are... handouts.

Was the Interstate Highway System a handout? Was the Internet a handout?

Those are two examples of Federally-funded infrastructure projects that created entirely new sectors for economic activity. They didn't hamper prosperity, they catalyzed it. No private company would have built the Internet; the up-front costs were too steep and the returns too distant for it to make sense on a profit/loss statement. But the government built it (the Defense Department doesn't care too much about return on investment, for good or ill), and it unleashed a wave of entrepreneurial creativity, as did the highway system, which created opportunities across the country for hotels, restaurants, tourism attractions, and freight transport.

If you want to see innovation and advancement in these areas, stop strangling the innovators.

The geniuses who came up with the credit default swap, the instrument that turned what would have been a moderate downturn into an existential threat to the global economy, were pretty innovative. And I bet there's a whole lot of people (including many on Wall Street) who wouldn't mind a chance to strangle them right about now ;-)

Under Duress

Under duress, yes:

The participants, among the nation’s best deal makers, were in a peculiar position. They weren’t allowed to negotiate. Mr. Paulson requested that each of them sign. It was for their own good and the good of the country, he said, according to a person in the room.

Source: Sweetness & Light quoting the Wall Street Journal

You note:

By making TARP a systemic program, this signaling problem was removed.

This is not a"signaling problem".  It's how the market is supposed to work.  When a company starts to tank, investors pull out.  By hiding/muting these signals, a situation ripe for insider trading has been built... after all, they still have better information and can cash out while the government forces others to accept the loss.


Even worse, it has gone systemic.
  Since all the banks had to take money, everyone is pulling out of the entire sector so even the smart/responsible banks are taking a hit.

There's a distinction between businesses that are failing because of factors that are within their control and businesses that are failing because of factors outside their control.
Even well-run businesses are at risk right now of being swamped by the economic crisis, so they're doing the rational thing: cutting expenses, pulling back and trying to save to get through the crisis.

I agree that there is a difference, but I guess as long as the government is evaluating whether the company has been: a) irresponsible, stupid, etc OR b) a victim of bad timing but has a strong proven business model then this should be okay.  Oh wait, they're not doing that, are they?

Can YOU name companies that are getting money that fall into group B?

Finally, if you look at the government's current investments in various renewable energies and high-speed rail transport, you'll see what they really are... handouts.

Was the Interstate Highway System a handout? Was the Internet a handout?

I'm not sure how your response relates to my statement.  Could you clarify?

TARP = handouts

Hi Keith, this is a good discussion to have.

A lot of people on both sides of the aisle object to the way TARP was executed. Too few strings, and the banks took advantage of that.

Here's an analogy: we discovered a tire on our car had a leak. But we decided we don't want to use the spare tire. So instead, we attached an air tank to the leaking tire, and continued driving on it while we pumped air into it continuously.

That was the purpose of the bailout, to keep the economy operating without having to wait for the banks to sort their mess out. Perhaps it would have been better to use the spare tire while we patch the leak properly.

In retrospect, it might have been better to create a new national bank with a limited charter (like Alexander Hamilton's First Bank of the United States), and assist otherwise healthy businesses who were in cash-flow trouble only because the banking industry was in chaos.

That would have let the banking industry clean house without taking down the rest of the economy in the meantime. The banks need to resolve their "toxic asset" problem through normal market processes. They are already doing this as we speak, but there are so many assets to go through that it will take several years.

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd> <br> <img> <p> <blockquote> <strike>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

More information about formatting options